The Sunday night rain event should be fairly low impact as far as rain amounts. Areas of stronger convection may see higher rain, but I do not foresee any measurable precipitation greater than 0.4 inches happening. Most areas of the Delta will verify around 0.25 - 0.4 inches.
We need to watch out for a Southeast wind on Sunday night, which are more conducive for tornado development. Severe Weather events at night can be more hazardous due to the low level of awareness. The Storm Prediction Center obviously thinks this will be a fairly high impact event, with most of the risk north of us. Below is the SPC graphic. The forecast soundings indicate small potential for some straight-line winds. A linear storm morphology will more than likely verify, because I dont see a Southeast flow setting up at the surface. The models really struggle at the low levels.
We need to watch out for a Southeast wind on Sunday night, which are more conducive for tornado development. Severe Weather events at night can be more hazardous due to the low level of awareness. The Storm Prediction Center obviously thinks this will be a fairly high impact event, with most of the risk north of us. Below is the SPC graphic. The forecast soundings indicate small potential for some straight-line winds. A linear storm morphology will more than likely verify, because I dont see a Southeast flow setting up at the surface. The models really struggle at the low levels.
Above is the trough of cold air aloft forecast to affect us and bring some small rain amounts. Clouds associated with the upcoming rain event will limit drying potential for the soil over the next few days. However, next week should become clear. Next rain chances will get thrown in for Friday/Saturday.
Zonal flow aloft (East-West) should make for a more quiet weather pattern next week. Make sure that your equipment is ready to break some ground late next week.
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