Following a highly amplified winter pattern, things are shaping up for an active Spring storm season. With that being said, what are the key factors to Thursday's development, and how does it affect your interests? The Storm Prediction Center has issued a mid-range Convective Outlook for Thursday. This can be viewed here: SPC Convective Outlook . You can see from the graphic that the entire Mississippi Delta is encircled in the risk area. So what does this mean for operations on your farm? Not much at this point.
The Weather Prediction Models can only tell us so much past 3 days. There is significant confidence that an upper level trough will swing through the area. Exact location, timing, and potency are uncertain. Combine the trough with ample moisture and some wind shear and you have a recipe for severe thunderstorms. The upper level trough essentially advects cold air into the upper levels, so when air from the surface rises due to convection, it can continue to rise freely due to buoyancy. (Warmer than surrounding air) Make sense? Think of a beachball in the pool. The low density ball (Warm Air) wants to shoot up above the higher density water (Cold Air).
Current Wind Profiles look conducive for some Squall Line Activity with localized heavy rainfall given the moisture profiles. We'll be able to iron out some Mesoscale Details (How this will affect your Farm) as the event draws nearer.
No comments:
Post a Comment