Rain tonight and Monday Morning

I still think my forecast of small rain amounts will verify. The moisture just isn't there to really soak things. Don't be surprised if a Thunderstorm produces intense rainfall, because it should be short lived. Overall Totals should be less than 0.4 inches. The bulk of the Severe Weather Threat for the Mississippi Delta is North. The only problem I foresee is the potential for Microbursts, strong winds brought from the midlevels. A point of concern is also the slight east component to the winds today.

The Warm Front is positioned farther North with this system, where the greatest severe weather threat will exist. Below is a surface Analysis.


Below is the observed atmospheric sounding from Jackson, MS this morning.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/11022712_OBS/



Notice that the wind barbs along the right side begin as Southeast flow, and gradually turn with height to a more westerly flow. This "backing of the winds" is especially conducive for the development of rotating SuperCells.

Monitor radar and be on the lookout for storms that are linear in structure but begin to "bow." Bowing storms can create an environment of increased wind shear at the mesoscale which can increase the likelihood of Tornado development. Since this is a night-time event, it is imperative that you stay close to  a source of Weather Information.


The high numbers that you see over the Delta are helicity (Wind Shear) forecasts from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC), a short term mesoscale model used for forecasting Severe Weather. Let's keep an eye on Wind Direction.