Answering the Big Question: When can you get in the Field?

I anticipate that many of you saw much more rain from yesterday and last night's event than I forecast. I attempt to be conservative yet accurate since I'm trying to give an outlook for a region. In the mind of the Farmer, a 2 inch rain versus a 4 inch rain has the same effect during the Spring. Both amounts keep tractors out of the field. With this in mind, knowing that rainfall would be variable across an area, I threw out the number 1.5 inches. I've checked and some areas saw near 4 inches where Strong Thunderstorms tracked across. I want to be accountable for my actions, and I do apologize if you were negatively affected by my information.

Below is what we want to see for quiet weather. This map is a forecast for the upper levels, where the "Jet Stream" is found.



Looking to the Long Range.... Below is a forecast output for early next week from the European Model. I'm suspicious of the Low along the Gulf Coast. I don't think that we'll see that materialize that far South. The trend looks to be quieting down, but I don't want to rule out some light showers next week. Even when there isn't a major forcing mechanism like a front, Warm Air Advection from Southerly flow can produce showers.



The Graphic below is an outlook for the next 8-14 days. You can see that we are in the unshaded area which means that the upcoming weather will be typical for this time of year, 0.4 inches of rain or less. This is not to say 2011 will not be atypical, rather it is a prediction of the future based on the past, an Analog approach.



From the Climate Prediction Center:

THE SEASONAL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MAM (March April May) 2011 FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD THROUGH THE 
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 
PLAINS, CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC 
COAST STATES.