Storms through the Weekend

Pretty good bit of rain North of us right now. There is a slim chance of rain tonight, but it would be nothing to affect your plans during the day today. The bulk of rain will begin late tonight and all day tomorrow. Severe potential will be strongly correlated to the track of the Low pressure and placement of the Warm Front. I'll post tomorrow once moisture and thermal boundaries for thunderstorm initiation are in place.

Forecast Sounding for KGWO (Greenwood). Note the absence of a warm layer, and steady cooling with height (Red Line). There is ample energy for convection. 

Moisture will have to be diagnosed at the Mesoscale during the morning hours tomorrow. I have seen the models really struggle with low-level moisture so I'm not going to waste time discussing that on this post.  Southwest surface winds will limit severe potential tomorrow. 

In the Long-Range....

I still look for next week to be much colder. The European and US based Global Forecast System are in good agreement for a chilly Thursday/Friday. 

European Model (Add 25 Degrees for a high temperature forecast for Thursday Afternoon)

US Based Global Forecast System for late next Week

There have been hard freeze warnings north of us in Tennessee recently. With the cold air forecast to dip down lower into our region next week I wouldn't be surprised to see some mid 30's overnight low temperatures, but we are still too far out to definitively call for a freeze.