Rain this Weekend, A Possible Freeze in the Long Range

Hopefully most of your fields stayed dry today. I have glanced at radar a few times and most showers are staying well north of Mississippi. I went with my gut and against all the model guidance by forecasting no rain, so I hope that some of you were able to manage and plan your operation better. Fairly good confidence in the weekend forecast for some rain Saturday Night/Sunday Morning. There is a severe weather threat early next week as well, which I won't discuss on this post, but can potentially bring some higher rainfall amounts.

With all the preparation for corn being done right now, I think it is important to highlight the current pattern in weather for the South as well as bring up a few other points. We are currently in a phase where the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is forecast to go negative. The NAO is a teleconnection using observed pressure anomalies to predict the flow pattern over North America. The negative phase of the NAO has a strong correlation with a high-amplitude pattern (Fronts, Low Pressure), while the positive NAO typically means more of a zonal flow regime (East-West Flow, Calm Weather). A negative NAO during this time of the year is of some concern since crops are beginning to be planted. The negative phase is more likely to allow cold air to seep down into the South and linger, increasing the likelihood for a Freeze.

NAO Forecast

The European Model for 7 Days out is somewhat ominous, especially knowing at this point that the NAO is forecast to trend negative. I'm saying all this to warn you if you are thinking of planting corn early. There have been freezes in Mississippi as late as the end of April. For those of you with corn in the ground already, weekend rains should be enough to get it up, but it should still be just before germinating  when and if the freeze occurs. The only real problem should be stunted growth since the soil is going to have to warm back up. I am going to keep an eye on this and will post more. If cold air hangs around behind the Thunderstorms early next week and there is clearing through the night with calm winds, I wouldn't be surprised to see temperature drop to the mid thirties to freezing in some northern locations.

European Model (Surface Pressure and Mid-Level Temperatures) Valid for Tuesday Night