Friday's Low Temperature

There has been some concern the past few days from the Jackson NWS Office about a freeze Friday night. A freeze this time of year is low impact since no one is putting seed in the ground, however I want to mention it. My forecasted Low for tomorrow is 34, which does agree with the National Weather Service.

When Weather Prediction Models run, the model output is analyzed statistically and compared with climatology. The result is MOS, or Model Output Statistics. MOS is freely available but cannot be used blindly as a forecast tool, as it has many limitations. Many different versions of a model, or "Perturbations" are also run each day. The "Perturbations" are put together to produce an "Ensemble" Forecast. Many times the Operational version of a model (the one that is in widespread use to produce a forecast) will vary from the Ensemble. Also, if a forecaster sees that there is high agreement among the Ensemble "Perturbations" , forecast confidence increases. In the case of Friday night, there is good agreement for an above freezing Low Temperature.


Nice East/West "Zonal" Flow behind the recent Heavy Rain Event. Notice the trough to the West near California. This can potentially bring more Rain to the Delta early next week. We'll keep an eye on it. I foresee the Sunday/Monday Rain Chances being negligible unless the Moisture profile strengthens.

Notice how much the Dewpoint is depressed from Temperature. This is a very low Moisture forecast sounding for Greenwood, MS. This image is valid for Sunday Afternoon.