Friday/Saturday Update

Don't make plans to get in the fields anytime soon. Rain accumulations will easily achieve 1 inch in places. The entire Delta is more likely to see 0.5 inches to 0.75 inch totals. The bulk of rain will begin Friday afternoon and will begin to end Saturday afternoon. I'm not ruling out light showers preceding the main event, but it won't be anything that will actually affect any of your plans, so it is irrelevant.

The graphic below is forecast rain amounts from the NAM (North American Model). The NAM is picking up on higher rain amounts in the North Delta. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has bought into this solution and has adjusted rain amounts accordingly. I'm not so fast to agree with model output since these storms will be heavily affected by the amount of Heat available in the environment. The fact that the models are forecasting high rain amounts is of concern since they don't do a good job of modeling convection, which will be a big player in producing intense rainfall rates.



HPC Rain Forecast Below




Last week's storm system dumped large amounts of rain North of the Delta which has runoff into the Mississippi River and caused the River to approach flood stage in many areas. Below is a graphic from NWS Jackson, MS. The likelihood for heavy rains this weekend will only amplify this.



The Storm Prediction Center has included the Delta in the Day 2 "Convective Outlook." The saturated moisture profile coupled with an environment forecast to be unstable has introduced the likelihood for heavy rainfall. I expect the heaviest Rainfall Rates on Saturday afternoon, when forecast potential energy is at its peak (CAPE).