Will Saturday's Thunderstorms Be Severe?

A very important factor for the strength of storms that will develop on Saturday is the timing and position of the Low. Warm Front position is critical in a Severe Weather Forecast. The risk area's position relative to the surface Low has everything to do with the development of rotating storms. Winds tend to bend eastward as they enter the surface Low, which in turn steepens Helicity Values. Helicity is a product that gives forecasters a look at the speed and directional wind shear within an environment. Storms that develop in an environment with substantial directional shear are much more likely to rotate. Rotating "Supercells" are responsible for producing Tornadoes.

The strength of Severe storms is dependent on the mechanical forcing (Dynamics) and the potential energy available in the environment (Thermodynamics). Thermodynamics are not handled well by the models, so when forecasting a Severe Event from days out, I focus on the mechanical forcing (Dynamics). The dynamics are in place for some activity this weekend.

The National Weather Service Office in Jackson, MS has bought in to a more Southerly Solution for the low track, which ramps up the Severe Weather probability. It's just too early to call for Doomsday when so much depends on Small Scale (Mesoscale) processes during this time of the year. It's February, so the vertical temperature gradient is not very strong. What I'm saying is that the sun needs to come out and really heat things up on Saturday for Severe Weather to get going. If the Warm Front establishes clouds and keeps the surface heating down, we can say goodbye to the Severe Threat.