Clouds will begin to build Thursday night and all day Friday. There are some small rain chances on Thursday night, but nothing that will do anything to upset anyone's plans with very small accumulations. The heaviest rain will begin Friday night and last through much of Saturday. Forecast accumulations are near 1 inch. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with this forecast and I will keep updating as things materialize. The GFS model (Global Forecast System) seems to be converging moisture over the Delta, which is making it blow up with the Rain amounts. I think that is an error, so I'm putting my neck on the line at this point and saying we won't see 1 inch rainfall over a broad area. Expect the winds to shift out of the South later this week at about 10 mph. My preliminary feeling is still to undershoot model forecasts and go with 0.5 inches and higher amounts in Thunderstorms up to 0.75 inches.
Really Cold Air behind this system, cold temperatures shouldn't last long though.
The image below is valid for 6 AM Friday to 6 AM Saturday. This does not mean that rain will begin at 6 AM, rather it depicts forecast precipitation accumulations.
Below is the forecasted "shortwave trough" in the upper levels of that atmosphere that will bring rain and possibly some severe weather to the Delta.
Southeast Flow bringing ample moisture into the environment.
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